Must See: 1st q. 2018 Real Estate Market Analysis

What’s Trending This Week In Las Cruces Real Estate

 This week’s Market Report will be an
Analysis of the First Quarter of 2018

Simply and definitively I can tell you that the Market is HOT!

Since the Recovery of the Real Estate Market in 2012, the number of home sales has increased slowly and steadily at about 5-6% year over year. 2016 was a great year with an 11.5% increase over 2015. 2017 home sales were even greater with another 11.5% increase in sales. (See the last column in the chart below.)

This 1st Quarter of 2018 was simply remarkable with total homes sales at their highest levels for the first quarter of any year since our boom years of 2006-2007.                                                        (See the first column in the chart below.) Sales exceeded 2017 by a record breaking 20%.


This Table is placed here to show just 1st quarter home sales by year. You can see the slow steady increase in sale after the 2012 housing market recover. You can clearly note the dramatic increase in sales in this 1st Quarter of 2018.




In addition to record sales, the Supply of Homes  (Listings) has had a dramatic decline.         Prior to 2015 we had well over a thousand homes for sale almost every year. Listings in 2015 fell to 940, in 2016 we had 832 active listings (an 11.5% drop). By the end of 2017 we had only 673 active listings which represented another 19% decline from the 2016 level. Our Current Level of listings has remained at an all time low of around 650 +/-.

The discrepancy between supply and demand seen in this graph is responsible for a marked decrease in the number of days a home spends on the market (DOM). In 2017 DOM was 142. In 2018 1st Q. that number dropped 47% to only 75 DOM.

All of this positive information and data leads us to this REALLY GOOD NEWS

This Graph Represent the positive effect of a “Hot Real Estate Market.”
 The positive result of low Supply and High Demand is an increase in Home Prices.
This first quarter of 2018 has not disappointed us.
1. In this Graph of Median Home prices, we see the steadily decline in home prices from 2006 to its lowest level in 2012. Since the Market recovery in 2012, the Median Price of Homes has increased slowly and steadily year over year up to 2016. Then in 2017 we saw a dramatic change with Median Home Prices rising 6% in that one year .
2. Many people believed that Price of homes had not recovered much because, the 2012 – 2016 yearly increases were only about 2%+/-.  But, In 2017 we saw a significant rise in prices (6%), and as you can see home prices have already increased significantly again during this 1st Quarter of 2018 (historically this is the slow time of the year), and we expect Median Home Prices to increase significantly in spring and summer).
 3. This increase in sales numbers and values is as important to buyers as it is to sellers.
For Sellers, there is every reason to  expect that the Market will continue show accelerated growth, and this should allow sellers to recoup equity. In the long run they should even begin to show appreciation in their homes. in that they see that they need to act now if they are planning to buy in 2018 since the low inventory is being consumed at a rapid rate.

For Buyers, now is a great time to act. Buyers should feel confident that this recovery of market values will make home ownership the valuable investment it has historically been. In these times of volitivity in both the stock and bond markets, and the expectation of continuing rising interest rates, real estate may again becomes a homeowner’s safest long term investment.

The last item I believe is essential to mention about about this 1st Quarter of 2018 is that not only do we have the great news about sales and prices but there a shift in the entire Market by Price Range. 

Looking at this chart we can easily see that the upper end price ranges have had a dramatic increase in sales. Though only 2017 and 2018 are shown here, if we were to go back even 1 or 2 years sales of homes above $350,000 were sluggish, $400,000- $500,000 sales were very low, and above $500,000 there were very few sales.

The recovery and shift to these higher priced homes is an extremely important sign that our Real Estate Market is great and our City is back on the map.

This concludes this week’s analysis of the 1st Quarter  2018 Real Estate Market.

Stay tuned for our Monday Market Updates: NEXT  is a Report on the New Home Construction Market Status.

For information about this report
or any other Real Estate information
Text or Call 575-312-7330